TV's Lockout

Many eyes are watching the NFL’s labor talks, but none watch with more interest than the broadcast television networks.

The NFL players’ union has officially decertified to avoid an official lockout, and issues are still being tensely negotiated. NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell has pressed to the implementation of an 18 game regular season, but the players’ union is resisting that concept and hoping to make contracts more equitable. Today, unproven rookies at flashy positions can command over $30 million in guaranteed money before taking a snap, while valuable veteran cogs in a team’s well-oiled machine, such as offensive and defensive linemen, make less in a year than Charlie Sheen makes per episode of Two and a Half Men.

Sheen has dominated the news lately, and CBS will struggle to replace his show in the lineup, but a resolution to the football crisis remains at the top of the wish list for all the networks. This is because the NFL is perhaps the one thing keeping television afloat.

In recent years, television ratings have been steadily declining in a manner similar to the American economy: all have been hurt, but those at the top have felt the least decline. Ten years ago, there were three shows that averaged over 20 million viewers, but the tenth-rated show, CSI, averaged 17.8 million. Five years ago, four shows averaged over 20 million viewers, and the tenth-rated show, House, averaged 17.3 million. This year, four shows have averaged over 20 million viewers, but the tenth-rated show, which is once again the original CSI, is averaging 13.7 million. The averages at the top have dropped as well: the top rated show of 2001, Survivor, brought in 29.8 million viewers, while 2006’s anchor, American Idol, averaged 31.2 million. Idol is once again king, and ratings may pick up as the competition comes to a close, but it has currently shed 10 million viewers since that peak.

Yet the overall ratings are only part of the story; the key to television’s decline can be seen in the key demographic of adults 18-49. Ten years ago, the tenth-rated show, CSI, averaged an 11.6 demo rating. This year, the top¬-rated show, American Idol, has averaged an 8.6. The only scripted show in the overall top 5 this year, NCIS, averages a 4.2 demo rating, which places it behind not only both nights of Idol and a night of Dancing, but also behind Glee, Modern Family, and Two & a Half Men. Glee is the only scripted show to average above a 5 in that demo.

The only product to produce massive ratings, both overall and in the 18-49 demo, and have those ratings eclipse prior performances is the NFL. This year’s Super Bowl was watched by 110 million viewers, and at the end of the TV season, the top primetime performer will not be Idol but NBC’s Sunday Night Football. Regular season NFL games over the three broadcast networks (and ESPN) averaged over 20 million viewers, and the postseason saw record ratings as well: a 28.1 and 31.3 rating for the NFC and AFC Championship games, respectively, meant increases of over 10 percent from last year (and the late game’s ratings were an increase of 32 percent over the late game two years ago).

With the rise of technology such as TiVo and the popularity of original programming on cable networks, the broadcast networks rely ever more on football to bring the nation together to their programming. Indeed, with the music industry hemorrhaging and the film industry losing dollars as well, football appears to be the one form of entertainment that unites Americans.

In 1958, Elvis Presley was drafted into the Army and served in Germany for two years. Elvis was the most popular musician in America by far, and industry crumpled in his absence. This was a time in which new products were released by the same artist every few months; it took years for the industry to recover. Television has reached that point with the NFL, but it is likely that there are no Beatles, Beach Boys, or Motown to eventually ride to its rescue.

The NFL and the players’ union hope to come to a reasonable agreement, and no one is hoping for that more than the broadcast networks.

Because the one thing Americans have come to a reasonable agreement on is the NFL.