Love & Marriage

The 2010 playoffs are arriving for Major League Baseball, and for the first time in almost ten years, three of the five biggest markets in the country will not be represented. Chicago, Los Angeles, and Boston will be making emergency plans in October, while unexpected bridesmaids such as Cincinnati, San Francisco, and Dallas-Fort Worth will be enjoying a limelight that has eluded them so far.

"Bridesmaids" is the important term in that paragraph, because the postseason rests on the tale of four weddings: two figurative weddings between a team and a player, and two literal weddings between husband and wife.

Perhaps there is a marriage between the last number of a year and the best team becoming victorious. For much of the decade, an odd numbered year equaled the coronation of baseball's best team, while an even numbered year rewarded a change in the formula. If one goes back to 2004, one sees a pattern of champions with only two exceptions to this rule:

2004: Boston Red Sox (slight underdog)
2005: Chicago White Sox (overwhelming favorite)
2006 St. Louis Cardinals (ultimate underdog)
2007: Boston Red Sox (overwhelming favorite)
2008: Philadelphia Phillies (slight underdog)
2009: New York Yankees (overwhelming favorite)

If this pattern holds serve, the team that should have the most fear is the Philadelphia Phillies. After dropping ace Cliff Lee but acquiring co-aces Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt, the Phillies are clearly the best team in baseball. This is a team that won the World Series two years ago and made the World Series last year, and with the swap of the incredibly superior Placido Polanco for Pedro Feliz at third base, the resurrection of Cole Hamels, and a reconstructed bullpen, there seems to be no legitimate challenger, on paper, for the Phils.

If this were an odd-numbered year, they'd be a lock. Alas, this is 2010.

The marriages of Halladay and Oswalt to the Phillies' organization is the key to Philly's success, because there are six teams that do not have the quality and depth of aces as they do. One team stands in their way: the San Francisco Giants. For 25 teams, Jonathan Sanchez would be an ace; on the Giants, he sits at #3, behind the frightening duo of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, a young tag team who gives up more years in experience than runs in the game.

The Giants last made the World Series in 2002, but that team could've had your humble blogger and you take 24 out of the 25 roster spots and still make the 7th game of the World Series. The Giants, that year, had the single greatest player in the history of baseball (Barry Bonds circa 2000-2004), and much like Babe Ruth carried some mediocre Yankees teams (pre-1925) to the World Series, so Bonds took a bunch of scab players to the brink.

Giants fans must feel they are cursed, for they were blessed with the best hitter of the decade and the best pitcher of the decade, but neither played with each other. Savvy moves by the Giants GM have given Lincecum a squad of five or six guys that might equal Bonds' production, which is something he has gone without for three years; if they take care of the Atlanta Braves in the ALDS, they may have a shot to unseat the best team in baseball.

The Phillies, however, might be guilty of looking ahead, and while there were three division winners in the American League, none scare the Phillies. The Texas Rangers, with a rehabilitated John Hamilton and Vlad Guerrero (two different types of rehabilitation), are an impressive group with the new best closer in baseball (after Joakim Soria of the KC Royals), but even with the presence of Cliff Lee, the Phils' saving grace in 2009, the Rangers do not match up with the Phillies. The same is true of the plucky Minnesota Twins, who overperform every year and should be the most beloved franchise in baseball. Despite their affability, the Twins pose no serious threat to the Phils' starting rotation of H20 (Halladay, Hamels, Oswalt).

The best record in the AL belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays, who unsuccessfully challenged an inferior Phillies squad in the 2008 World Series after defeating the defending champion Boston Red Sox in an epic seven game encounter. This year's Rays are weaker than the 2008 Rays; that Rays team had two good starters (Scott Kazmir & Matt Garza), while this team has one (David Price). Despite the improved bullpen (Joaquin Benoit and Rafael Soriano replace the aforementioned Price), the Phillies are clearly superior to the squad the bested in '08.

The '10 Phillies only have to worry about two marriages: one needs to succeed, while the other needs to fail. If the American League falls into place like the Phillies imagine, they will stand four games away from the championship with the same foe in front of them that bested them last season.

That foe has changed dramatically. Gone are World Series MVP Hideki Matsui and World Series Hall of Famer Johnny Damon (his double steal during Game 4 will go down with the Eli Manning-David Tyree play and the Larry Bird steal of Isiah Thomas as the most ingenious moments in championship history), and gone, for the most part, is AJ Burnett, who pitched one of the great games in Series history to keep the Yankees even. In their place are Robinson Cano (a nonfactor in last year's playoffs who became as top 3 MVP candidate), Curtis Granderson (a horrible trade bounty until August 15, when Kevin Long's advice led him to swat almost 15 HRs in 40 games), and Phil Hughes (who failed as the 8th inning man in the last playoffs but who proved that he should be the #2 starter this season).

While the Phillies got stronger, the Yankees got weaker. The Yankees lineup includes a broken down Jorge Posada at catcher (who can't throw any baserunner out), an injured Mark Teixeira (a liability in last year's playoffs while healthy), a ghostly Lance Berkman (terrible trade), and an injured Alex Rodriguez (the undisputed MVP of last year's entire playoffs). Of that four, it is expected that Posada produce at the plate and Teixeira in the field, but some reciprocation would be appreciated by Yankees fans. Rodriguez, meanwhile, needs another monstrous postseason to make the ultimate transformation into a Yankee legend: it is worth noting that Don Mattingly, with a broken back at an advanced age, hit .430 in his only postseason appearance. Rodriguez has been blessed with enough postseasons to overcome his early failures: if he carries the Yankees to the World Series, he will have gone through the following transformation: Dave Winfield -> Reggie Jackson -> Mickey Mantle.

Despite the assurance of a tremendous set of outings by CC Sabathia and the hope that Cano, Hughes, Granderson, Rodriguez, and the bullpen straighten things out, Yankees fans must be concerned with two marriages:

Last postseason, Derek Jeter and Nick Swisher were swinging bachelors in New York City; this year, both are engaged to be married. The results have been staggering . . . in both directions.

Swisher, well on his way to being the most beloved right fielder since Paul O'Neill, was acquired in the 2008 offseason after hitting .210. Last season, Swisher hit almost .250 and belted almost 30 HRs, but in the postseason, veteran scouting staffs zeroed in on his weaknesses, and he (along with Robinson Cano) was the most automatic out in the Yankee lineup.

Over the winter, Swisher fell in love with B-list actress Joanna Garcia, and this season, he asked her to marry him. Comfortable in New York and starting a family with a NYC-based actress, Swisher batted about .290, with his usual power production, and drove in 90 RBIs. Last year, Swisher produced from the seventh or eighth spot in the batting order; this year, despite his improvements, he only drove in 90 RBIs batting second, and that has to do with his leadoff man.

Derek Jeter hit .335 last season, and in the playoffs (specifically the World Series), he hit close to that number. The 2009 postseason video may focus on Sabathia, Rodriguez, Damon, and Matsui, but Jeter was right in the middle of the action and showed why he is one of the elite postseason performers in the game. In six World Series, Jeter batted under .300 only twice - his first (against the Hof Braves staff in 1996) and against the ridiculous Diamondback staff of 2001 (where he christened himself as 'Mr. October' with a walkoff HR). Jeter has proven himself to be an elite postseason player - but in those years, he proved himself to be an elite player, period.

After the Yankees won the World Series in 2009, the perennial playboy Jeter, who has spread herpes to every hot starlet in Hollywood and who introduced Tiger Woods to a life of debauchery, proposed to Minka Kelly, the star of Friday Night Lights. While Jeter and his parents were happy that he thought of settling down, Yankees fans were not thrilled with his .270 batting average. Many refuse to blame his personal life on his depreciation, but Jeter had always thrived on being 'The Man', and to this writer, his personal life mirrored his professional life. Every rational man should strive to be inside the following starlets: young Mariah Carey, Vanessa Minnillo, Jessica Alba, Jessica Biel, Jordana Brewster, Tyra Banks, Adriana Lima, Gabrielle Union, Scarlett Johansson, and Ms. Universe Lara Dutta.

Minka Kelly is a beautiful girl, but the facts don't lie: since putting a ring on it, Jeter has lost 60 points on his batting average.

The Phillies lost a chance to repeat last year because of three reasons. The first reason was their lack of a potent force to Alex Rodriguez and Hideki Matsui. Chase Utley tied Reggie Jackson's record for WS HRs, but almost all came against Sabathia, and when the Yankees brought in a lefty specialist, Utley and Howard folded like 2-8 offsuit pairs. Rodriguez, by contrast, cemented himself into postseason legacy.

The Yankees also won due to their superior starting rotation: the first three-man rotation to win the World Series since 1991. Sabathia lost Game 1 against Lee, but Lee's teammates (including an exhausted Hamels) blew the Series and Lee sat out Game 4, which Sabathia pitched and which ultimately decided the Series.

The Phils have an effective counter for Sabathia in Halladay, who can actually go on three days rest. Pettitte and Hamels remains an enticing rematch of last year's Game 3, while the combination of Oswalt and Hughes, who Yankees' AA & AAA scouts compared to Oswalt, would be phenomenal. The Phils' bullpen was upgraded with outside additions, while the Yankees had a mixture of maturity and smooth decisions. The difference remains in the closers, despite Mariano Rivera's September struggles; Rivera over Lidge/Madson is the equivalent of Foreman/Frazier in 1973.

The Phillies remain the favorite to regain the World Series crown, and a combination of Phil Hughes, Alex Rodriguez, Robinson Cano, and Curtis Granderson may even the odds. The true swing in the series, though, remains in the marriages:

Can Halladay dominate the World Series like he did the regular season?

Can Oswalt pitch in a big moment in the bandbox the way he did in the pitchers' paradise of Houston?

Can Swisher continue his hot year in the postseason?

And most importantly:

Can Derek Jeter regain his swing without being a swinger?